Lunar Infrastructure ROI Calculator
Model how AI-autonomous in-situ production changes the cost structure of a long-term lunar presence. The model runs a year-by-year cash flow with a production ramp, sustaining operations, discounting, and payback.
Mission inputs
Consumables, propellant, spares and structure required at the surface each year.
Fully burdened launch plus transfer and landing cost per kilogram.
Oxygen, water, propellant and regolith-derived mass produced locally at steady state.
Development, delivery and commissioning of the production system.
Higher autonomy cuts sustaining operations cost and shortens the production ramp.
Period over which cash flows are accumulated and discounted.
When cumulative savings cover capex plus operations
Discounted net value over 10 years
Net undiscounted cash flow divided by capex
Cumulative cash flow
10-year horizonEconomics
Everything launched from Earth over the horizon
Mass no longer lifted, after the production ramp
Sustaining ops ~$45M per year at this autonomy level
Down from $12,000 / kg baseline
Steady-state production
Local output replacing launched mass at steady state
Feedstock excavated and processed annually
Life support and oxidiser for propellant
Paired with 800 kg of water equivalent
Assumes ~5% water by mass in permanently shadowed regolith, ~30% recovery efficiency, 89/11 oxygen-to-hydrogen split by mass on electrolysis, and a production ramp of 2.3 years set by autonomy level. Figures are order-of-magnitude estimates for scenario planning.
Sensitivity
How NPV moves when a single assumption shifts and everything else holds.
Want the full methodology?
Get the investor and partner brief with detailed cost models, ISRU assumptions, and the roadmap for a self-sustaining lunar presence.
Transport is getting more affordable. Sustainment is still the bottleneck.
Each year, baseline cost is annual mass demand multiplied by delivered cost per kilogram. In-situ production removes a share of that mass, but only after a ramp period: at low autonomy the plant reaches full output slowly and needs more ground-in-the-loop operations.
Against those savings the model charges capital cost in year zero and sustaining operations every year, scaled down as autonomy rises. Net cash flows are accumulated for payback and discounted at 10% for NPV.
It is a planning model, not a bid. The point is to show which variable actually moves the outcome: for most credible scenarios it is autonomy and ISRU share, not launch price.